Since
World War II, many things have changed in the world both in economy and warfare.
Post-World War II atmosphere initiated competition for the world's true
hegemony. This competition brought us good and bad things; one of the good
things is the rapid development of technology, science, medicine, among many
other things. Conversely, the increased competition succeeded in the manufacture
and development of lethal weapons, bombs, machines and economic crisis.
The
Soviet Union and the United States emerged from World War II as the world's
leading superpowers. This set the stage for the Cold War, which lasted for the
next 45 years. The United Nations was formed in the hope of preventing another
conflict. The self determination spawned by the war accelerated de-colonization
movements in Asia and Africa, while Western Europe itself began moving toward
integration.
The
Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, leaving the United States as the sole superpower
in a unipolar world. However, that is about to change.
Let's
take a look of how some major participants of World War II, and participants of
the latter conflicts stand financially today, and what can we expect from them
in the future. These include: Allied Powers such as the United States, Russia,
France, the UK and China. Axis Powers: Germany, Italy and Japan. Korean War
participant: South Korea (Republic of Korea).
United
States
The
United States was involved in WW II as a major military power and more or less
in every military campaign since the war, almost always coming out as the
winner. The United States, once a great power, now is in a great trouble.
Today,
major economic concerns in the US include national debt, external debt,
entitlement liabilities for retiring baby boomers who have already begun
withdrawing from their Social Security accounts, corporate debt, mortgage debt,
a low savings rate, falling house prices, a falling currency, and a large
current account deficit. As of June 2008, the gross US external debt was over
$13 trillion, the most external debt of all countries in the world. The 2007
estimate of the United States public debt was 65% of GDP. As of October 1, 2008,
the total US federal debt exceeded $10 trillion, about $31,700 per capita.
Unfunded Medicaid, Social Security, Medicare, and similar promised obligations
made the government liabilities to rise to a total of $59.1 trillion, or
$516,348 per household.
Military
spending by the US Government have created instability in the country.
Conservative estimates that by 2017, the Iraq and Afghanistan wars will cost the
US around five trillion dollars.
Despite
the current financial situation, the US economy, according to reports is still
the largest national economy in the world, with an estimated 2008 gross domestic
product (GDP) of US$14.3 trillion (23% of the world total based on nominal GDP
and almost 21% at purchasing power parity (PPP)).
Russia
Russia
– the Soviet Union and Allied members were also involved in many military
conflicts including War World II and the Korean War. Russia came out of that war
undefeated. However, Russia-then the Soviet Union faced serious financial
problems and stagnation. With the Cold War coming to a close in the late 1980s
and the early 1990s, and with US increased diplomatic, military, and economic
pressure, the Soviet Union finally collapsed. Now, decades after WW II, Russia
is becoming a great power, not in a great trouble.
Recent
rise in oil prices, increased foreign investments, higher domestic consumption
and greater political stability have strengthened economic growth in Russia. The
country ended 2007 with its 9th straight year of growth, averaging 7% annually
since the financial crisis of 1998. In 2007, Russia's GDP was around $2,089
trillion (est. PPP), the 7th largest in the world, with GDP growing 8.1% from
the previous year, and $14,704 GDP per capita. Growth was primarily driven by
non-traded services and goods for the domestic market, as opposed to oil or
mineral extraction and exports.
Oil
export earnings have allowed Russia to increase its foreign reserves from $12
billion in 1999 to $597.3 billion on 1 August 2008. Today, Russia has the third
largest reserves in the world. Arms sales have increased to the point where
Russia is first in the world in sale of weapons.
Also,
Russia owns $74.1 billion or 2.77% of the US Treasury Securities.
Japan
On
December 7, 1941, Japan attacked the United States naval base in Pearl Harbor
and declared war on the United States, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands.
This act brought the United States into World War II. After the US atomic
bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, along with the Soviet Union joining
the war against it, Japan agreed to an unconditional surrender on August 15,
1945. The war cost Japan millions of lives and left much of the country's
industry and infrastructure destroyed.
Despite
Japan's devastating destruction, today, Japan is one of the strongest
independent economic and industrial power on the Earth. A major economic power,
Japan has the world's second largest economy by nominal GDP, at around $4.381
trillion in terms of nominal GDP, and $34,296 per capita, and the third largest
in purchasing power parity. Japan is a member of the United Nations, G8, G4,
OECD and APEC, with the world's fifth largest defense budget. It is also the
world's fourth largest exporter, and sixth largest importer. It is a developed
country with high living standards and a world leader in technology, machinery,
and robotics.
Banking,
insurance, real estate, retailing, transportation, telecommunications and
construction are all major Japan industries. Japan has a large industrial
capacity and is home to some of the largest, leading and most technologically
advanced producers of motor vehicles, electronic equipment, machine tools, steel
and nonferrous metals, ships, chemicals, textiles and processed foods. The US is
maybe the biggest importer of the Japanese products in the world.
Japan
owns $593.4 billion or 22.17% of the US Treasury Securities.
Germany
Germany
was a major European power from the 1930s to the mid-1940s. Its historical
significance lies mainly in escalating political tensions in Europe by its
expansionist foreign policy, which resulted in World War II. The state came to
an end in 1945, after the Allied Powers succeeded in seizing German occupied
territories in Europe, and in occupying Germany itself. Germany, like some other
European countries was seriously destroyed during the WW II.
Today,
Germany is the largest national economy in Europe, the third largest by nominal
GDP in the world, around $3,320 trillion. Also Germany is ranked 5th by
GDP (PPP) at around $2,812 trillion; its growth rate in 2007 was 2.4%. Since the
age of industrialization, the country has been the beneficiary of an ever more
globalized economy. The export of goods "Made in Germany" is one of
the main factors of the country's wealth. Germany is the world's top exporter
with $1.133 trillion exported in 2006 (Euro zone countries are included), and
generates a trade surplus of €165 billion. Most of the country's products are
in engineering, especially in automobiles, machinery, metals, and chemical
goods. Germany is the leading producer of wind turbines and solar power
technology in the world.
Concerning
the European Union, Germany was and still is the Union's biggest net
contributor; with the biggest economy, she is responsible for about 23% of the
EU budget.
Germany
owns $41.1 billion or 1.54% of the US Treasury Securities.
South
Korea – The Republic of Korea
In
the 1950s, South Korea became one of the poorest countries in Asia; its
infrastructure and resources were severely exploited during the Japanese
occupation and completely destroyed by the Korean War.
However,
following the military coup led by General Park Chung-Hee in 1962, South Korea
became for four straight decades one of the fastest-growing economies in the
world, completely transforming itself from farming and fishing- based economy
into one of the world's most high-tech industrial powers.
Today,
South Korea is a major economic power, and one of the wealthiest countries in
Asia. The South Korean economy is highly developed and one of the
four largest in Asia and 13th largest in the world. Often called the
"Miracle on the Han River", South Korea's tremendous economic growth
was fueled by the export of high-tech goods. The South Korean economy continues
to grow at a very fast speed, having one of the highest GDP at around $1,201
trillion, export and industrial production growth rate in the developed world.
By 2050, the South Korean economy would have grown to over $4 trillion and have
an income per capita of over $90,000, surpassing almost all of the current G7.
Today,
South Korea is leading several key industries in the world, particularly in the
fields of science and technology. The South Koreas strongest industries are
automobiles, biotechnology, construction, computers, electronics,
petrochemicals, robotics, semiconductors, shipbuilding, and steel.
South
Korea owns $35.3 billion or 1.32% of the US Treasury Securities.
There
are many other participants who were defeated or were seriously affected by WW
II and the Cold War, although stands strong today. These include: the UK,
Austria, Italy, France, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria among others.
If
we look at the above records, it looks like that all Allied Powers except the
US, who contributed mostly to the WW II, stands economically strong today,
including Axis members, who by all studies are the strongest ones.
Consequently,
one question rises from this: Did the Allied Powers really defeat Germany, Italy
and Japan in World War II?
It
looks like they did not. Today, Germany, Italy and Japan are powerful countries,
and if they unite for some mutual reasons could become unbeatable. If Germany,
Italy and Japan decided to start a new war by forcing out the US military bases
from its territories, what can we expect; can we expect to see all five major
Allied Powers and Security Council members joining against them for the second
time?
Knowing
that Germany and Italy became major European powers, and Japan Asian power, is
that really possible?
If
there was ever a major war, Russia would look for her own interests this time,
and that is Europe. Russia learned her lessons from the Cold War. China would
stay neutral, although, closer to Russia than to the US. France would not be
able to help the US; France has too many problems these days, France would have
to stay in good relations with European members in order to prosper. The UK is
the most interesting one; she would be in a very difficult situation to help her
friends and allies, or to bond closer to Europe.
If
the UK fails to provide necessary help to the US, who will? In that case, the
United States could only expect help from South Korea and the State of Israel.
This
is just a theory, however, one day Germany, Italy and Japan will try to force
out the US military basis from its lands. Let's just hope it will be done in
peaceful and understanding way so that we do not get the chance to see millions
of people killed and nations destroyed all over again.
Ivan Simic lives in Belgrade, Serbia. Address: Paloticeva 12,
11000 Belgrade, Serbia, Tel: +381 63 7508500.
