Kosovo Brief 

  Saturday, March 15, 2008

    By Ivan Simic

On 17 February 2008, in Southeastern Europe, the Serbian Southern province
of Kosovo declared independence from the Republic of Serbia, and self-proclaimed
a new Republic of Kosovo. The newly proclaimed Republic of Kosovo was later
recognized by few sovereign states, but not by the UN. Involvement of the
world's two (the EU and the US) out of five superpowers in this event can be
explained through experimental theory, and as a secret plan of the European
Union and the United States.

Experimental theory: Kosovo, an Ultimate Testing Ground for 'Giants'

Things have changed in the international system, now we have new
superpowers, superpowers that do not look like anything we saw before.
Today, superpowers, states with leading positions in the international
system and an ability to influence events and project power on worldwide scales
are: the European Union, the United States, Russia, China and India. These
superpowers sometimes need a testing ground to show their superiority over
others. These days that testing ground is Kosovo.

The European Union

Looking at the current situation in Europe, involvement of the EU can be
described through political and economical perspectives. The European Union
as the most intelligent and the best organized multiethnic Union ever seen
in human history, maybe wishes to become the world's hegemon and independent
military force, independent from the US.

There are a few interesting facts concerning the EU military. In relation to
the EU decisions and plans regarding the military and military defense, it
is possible that the EU members want out of NATO, and a new strong
independent army. NATO was not the European plan, the Western European Union
(WEU) was. The WEU was signed by the Treaty of Brussels in March 1949
between Belgium, France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom,
however, the US opposed the WEU and soon the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in April
1949 (NATO) was established.

The Western European Union (WEU), was aimed primarily at defending against possible German rearmament; NATO on the other hand was established mainly to defend against the Soviet Union and Eastern Block. Western Europe at that time needed US support,
since it could not face the Soviet Union alone. The true power of WEU was seen
in 1954 when West Germany and Italy joined. Today, the Western European
Union has 10 member countries (UK, France, Belgium, Luxembourg, the
Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal), 6 associate
member countries, 5 observer countries and 7 associate partner countries.

There are a number of multi-national military and peacekeeping forces within
the EU, which are ultimately under the command of the European Union. This future EU
army had few testing before its final completion, for example through
NATO, EUFOR, EURFOR (SFOR, IFOR, and KFOR), Eurocorps, among others.
According to The Helsinki Headline; 'Goal by the year 2010', the EU will have
full military capabilities in humanitarian and rescue tasks, disarmament
operations, support to third world countries in combating terrorism, peacekeeping
tasks and tasks of combat forces in crisis management, and peacemaking. With
this new European army, the 21 EU Member States will possibly suspend their
membership in NATO.

In theory, there are two possible scenarios of the EU involvement in Kosovo
independence: political and economic, any other theories of the EU honestly
supporting separatism (secessionism) are out of place. Currently, 15 EU
countries-members are confronted with secessionism, including Germany,
Spain, France, Italy, Belgium, Cyprus, Romania, Slovakia, and the UK, among
others. Beside the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus whose dispute goes
back to 1983, long before the formation of the EU, Kosovo is the new challenge
for the EU, especially because it is in Europe, and in controllable
environment.

From the political side, the EU sees Kosovo's unilateral declaration of
independence as an experiment. This experiment will show to the EU where it
stands, what other superpowers think, how strong they really are on the
international scene, and how they will behave after Kosovo independence. The
EU will learn a lot about independence and will prepare itself for any
possible secessions of any region within the EU. Also this will be a great
opportunity to get more experience for the future army through EULEX (The
European Union Rule of Law Mission) in Kosovo - the mission will include 2000
police and judicial personnel, with the cost of 165 million Euros in the
first year.

From the economic side, Kosovo is very interesting to two great EU members;
Germany and France. They are interested in exploitation of the Kosovo
region, since Kosovo is geologically rich.

The United States of America

Many believe the US was putting pressure on the EU to recognize independent
Kosovo. That is not true, the US was not in the position, and she did not
want to. The US, like the EU does not support secessionism. She and
neighboring Canada are also confronted with the same problems among their
own states, for example California and Texas have wanted to become
independent states, and Quebec in Canada.

From the political side, the US did not get anything from Kosovo
independence, only additional foreign political disputes. Kosovo was likely
to show that the US is still influential in the world, and to test her power
on the international stage and within the UN. Maybe after failure in Iraq,
Kosovo was supposed to help the US to divert international political weight
from Iraq. Furthermore, the US efforts in making Kosovo an independent state
did not change the image, which the Muslim and the Arab world have over her.

From the strategic side, the US maybe wants to build a new military base in
Kosovo. Today, she has a large military presence in Europe, including
military bases in Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, the UK, the Nederland,
among others, with around 100,000 military personnel. The EU, especially
Germany, Italy (because of WWII and huge military presence for decades), and
Russia will not allow the US to build additional military bases in the Euro
region, and create quad points (the UK, Italy, Germany, and Kosovo). If
European members of NATO suspend their membership and decides that the US
should withdraw her military forces from Europe, the US will be very
vulnerable. However, if the US in that moment looks for an ally in the UK,
the UK, as the US biggest ally will turn back on her and closely bond with
the EU.

Looking from the economic side, the United States will only have additional
expenses over Kosovo. Kosovo, for many years is in deficit, and there is not
much that the US can take from Kosovo which Europe does not want.

There are speculations around the world and within EU members over the
Kosovo issue. Questions have been asked: Why the EU members have different
positions over this issue? Will Russia intervene and use military force?
What will China do? What about India? Will this give grounds to other
disputed areas to declare independence? These questions and many others
provided reasonable grounds to look for the possible secret plan of the EU
and the US.

The EU and the US secret plan: False Freedom

The European Union on 18 February 2008, officially stated that it would 'take
note' of Kosovo's move, but leaves the question of recognition to its member
states. It appears that the EU does not support Kosovo independence, and
that some member states were lobbied by Albanians, and in addition they
recognized independence (Germany, France, Italy, among others), however,
some did not, nor will they recognize Kosovo. When the EU and EU Member
States say that they are friends and wish to have good diplomatic relations
with Serbia, they mean it, but that will be seen later. So, according to
this, some Member States are in favor of supervised independence, but not
for long.

It is a public secret that the Albanian lobby for years created enormous
pressure on President Bush's administration, through US politicians and
officials. As a result, they came to the only acceptable solution; to
recognize and supervise Kosovo's independence in cooperation with the EU, and get
the Albanian lobby off its back. 

The Republic of Serbia was an ally of Allies Forces in War World II, on the other side Albania was the puppet state of Fascist Italy, and Fascist Italy was the ally of Nazi Germany. The US, by all means, has no intention to spoil her relations with Serbia over
some European province-new Republic which she need to support financially
over the next 20-30 years, when she have solid relations and investments in
Serbia.

Despite all facts, the European Union and the United States as influential
players in this event know that independent Kosovo does not stand any chance
of survival; it cannot be a member of the EU, the UN, OSCE, IOC, IMF, or any
other vital human organization. The EU and the US Law enforcement
institutions are also familiar with Kosovo-Albanian links with terrorist
organizations (Al Qaeda), paramilitary formations and criminal
organizations. The EU, as a multi-ethnic Union recognizes International
Law and the UN; however, this lobby had to be satisfied.

In the next two years, Kosovo-Albanians will think that they have succeeded
in their agenda, but they will realize they were wrong. By mid 2010, when
the EU succeeds with The Helsinki Headline Goal, and when a new US
administration takes firm control over the United States, they will announce
that various reports have shown that unilaterally declared Republic of
Kosovo under international supervision is not capable of independence, and
that they are recommending that Kosovo, Albanians continue to negotiate their
terms with the Republic of Serbia. Also, that a Republic of Kosovo was a
mistake, and that Kosovo needs to be a part of Serbia.

This shows the world that secessionism is not easy as many think,
and perhaps reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights and International
Law, as well as the United Nations.

Both options are possible, and time will show if they are true or not,
however, with the partial international recognition of Kosovo independence,
for one more time, International Law and the Charter of the United Nations
has been underrated.

 Ivan Simic lives in Belgrade, Serbia. Address: Paloticeva 12, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia, Tel: +381 63  7508500.